June inflation came in hot. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month, matching forecasts but doubling May’s 0.1% print. Year over year, CPI hit 2.7%, the highest since January. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% on the year. That’s sticky. That’s not cooling. That’s pressure.
Shelter rose 0.2%. Food ticked up 0.3%. Gasoline jumped 1.0%. Electricity climbed 1.0%. Utility gas added 0.5%. Used cars dropped 0.7%. New vehicles fell 0.3%. Airline fares dipped 0.1%. Medical care rose 0.5%. Apparel increased 0.4%. Household furnishings surged 1.0%. The mix is uneven, but the direction is clear. Prices are rising across essentials.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV he hasn’t reviewed the report and warned against overreacting to one data point. That’s the official line. But markets are watching the trend. May’s CPI was 2.4%. April was 2.3%. The curve is bending upward. Tariffs are biting. Supply chains are adjusting. Retailers are passing costs on. The 10% blanket tariff is showing up in furniture, toys, and cars.
US Treasury Sec. Bessent on Inflation: Don’t Overreact to One Data Point — BBGTV
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he hasn’t reviewed the latest inflation report but cautioned against placing too much weight on a single inflation number. He emphasized the importance of…
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 15, 2025
The Fed’s target is 2%. June’s 2.7% is above that. Core at 2.9% is even worse. The Fed meets July 30. Rate cuts are on hold. Futures are pricing in a delay. The bond market is reacting. Yields are climbing. Liquidity is tightening. The Bloomberg Government Bond Liquidity Index hit 6.5 this week. That’s the worst since 2008. The system is feeling it.
Sources
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07152025.htm
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-june-2025-inflation-trump-tariffs
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/cpi-report-nvidia-amd-china-130838785
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/14/the-june-cpi-comes-out-july-15-heres-what-to-watch-for
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-07-15/us-cpi-report-for-june
