These hard data weeks are always one of the best since it gives a broad read on the economy – giving our most timely read on demand, production, housing, and employment.
Instead of focusing on the wiggles (which can be jerked around by SA), more useful to look at y/y & levels.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 16, 2025
Its not just car purchases front running tariffs either. Ex-Autos shows the same basic path. pic.twitter.com/cMexuQ2y6T
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 16, 2025
Production numbers continue to hold up, certainly nothing that would indicate meaningful weakness. Of course there could be some tariff front running here, but we are a long way from recession indications. pic.twitter.com/0MBmnOiL35
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 16, 2025
Employment measures continue to show stability. Initial claims is stable and in the range of the last couple years. pic.twitter.com/oG6rMmP3FR
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 16, 2025
Taken together its not surprising that this initial read of April data is pointing to decent growth in the 2Q. And quite a bit stronger than consensus expectations. pic.twitter.com/he0RDp6cpg
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 16, 2025
With policy drags clearing, expectations will reset.
The underlying economy remains pretty good and the tariff fever dream is behind us (most likely). And yet consensus remains pegged to weakness.
The expectations shift back toward reality favors stocks & cash over bonds.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 16, 2025
If this #market keeps rallying, the need to play #catchup on performance by #fund managers could provide a decent tailwind to stocks. pic.twitter.com/fdQWPPE61V
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 16, 2025
