Trump threatened tariffs. BRICS leaders fired back. Brazil’s president says there’s “no going back” on de-dollarization. Here’s why the summit’s quiet strategy just got louder, and what that means for the future of the dollar…
By Peter Reagan
For months, I expected the Rio Reset to unfold quietly: a slow, strategic rollout of an alternative financial network – never a direct challenge to the dollar.
What began as a soft-spoken effort to rewire the system ended with loud, coordinated defiance – led by Brazil’s president himself.
There’s “no going back”
As the summit wrapped up, Donald Trump posted a warning: 10% tariffs on all BRICS nations if they continued to bypass the dollar.
The response was swift, and unusually direct.
Lula, hosting the summit, called it “very mistaken and very irresponsible.” Then he went further:
“The world has changed. We don’t want an emperor. We are sovereign countries. There’s no going back. Reducing dependence on the dollar will happen step by step – until it is consolidated.”
“Nobody has determined that the dollar is the currency standard,” he added.
Lavrov echoed the sentiment: the U.S. had “flagrantly abused” its financial dominance. China’s foreign ministry warned that “tariffs should not be used as tools for coercion.” Even South Africa defended the bloc: “We are not anti-American, but we are pro-trade independence.”
From Bolivia’s President Luis Arce: a stark summary:
“There is a clear struggle between the old stagnant bloc of the U.S. and Europe, and the emerging bloc of BRICS.”
A quiet coup never stays quiet
Since all the Rio Reset-related work has been going on quietly, in the background, I expected it to stay quiet. I expected the BRICS leaders to stay on-message, to simply repeat their mantra:
Cooperation, not confrontation. An alternative, not a rival, to the dollar.
But they didn’t. Why change now? Why, on the final day of the 2025 BRICS Summit, after perfect adherence to the soft-sell messaging, why did BRICS pivot to a confrontational approach?
Here’s what I think. I believe they’re confident in the progress they’ve made, confident enough to get aggressive.
Consider just a few of their announcements over the last couple days:
- Massively expanded bilateral trade settled in local currencies
- Greatly expanded public-private lending from the New Development Bank
- A joint IMF reform proposal to overhaul current voting quotas (ending the tradition of European leadership)
- A cross-border BRICS payment system (already up and running, but now public)
- Dozens of infrastructure partnerships signed without Western involvement
- Universal condemnation of unilateral tariffs as “financial coercion”
Overall? Less talk, more action. BRICS isn’t just symbolically opposing the dollar and all the strings attached to its use.
They’ve made enough progress and gained enough confidence to stand up and say, “Enough is enough.”
That’s quite bold. And it marks a turning point in their approach.
Optionality is the true currency of the Rio Reset
Standing up and pushing back against tariff threats sends a message. Not to the U.S. but to the rest of the world.
Here’s how I interpret that message:
The dollar isn’t the only game in town. Not anymore.
When Venezuela can buy food using Chinese yuan, all the U.S. sanctions in the world can’t interrupt that transaction. When Brazil can sell heavy machinery to Russia for rubles or gold, the West’s attempts to financially isolate Russia don’t work.
It’s both an economic and aa political signal: We don’t need to ask permission from anyone to trade as we see fit. Your rules are irrelevant. We are sovereign nations who can make our own rules.
Now, it’s important to note that this doesn’t mean the end of the dollar. It means the end of the dollar’s monopoly on global trade. (And a dramatic weakening of the U.S.’s most powerful non-kinetic weapon, but that’s geopolitics. We’ll stick to economic concerns today.)
Now, here’s something to think about…
Optionality doesn’t make front-page news – but it shapes backroom deals. And over time, it reshapes the system.
Here in Rio, overall, the perspective looks like this:
While the U.S. threatens you with tariffs and sanctions, BRICS welcomes you with open arms.
It reminds me of something Professor Pablo Ibanez told Phillip and I during our interview (paraphrasing):
The ONLY thing BRICS agree on is the problem of tariffs and sanctions.
So maybe the BRICS leaders discussed this pivot in messaging just before the press conference. Maybe they decided that going loud with their Rio Reset set-up, announcing an alternative to the dollar, was the right move.
I think it’s more likely that Lula just lost his temper… Either way, the BRICS Rio Summit ended with more fireworks than I expected.
Have the gloves come off?
Monday’s response was clear: BRICS isn’t backing down.
Instead, they’re doubling down.
Instead of “revolution,” they call it “inclusion.” Instead of “opposition,” they call it “optionality.” Piece by piece, step by step, one nation at a time, they’re building their own economic bloc with their own rules, priorities and systems.
Now, it’s important to note, the Rio Reset option will not crash the dollar overnight. Trust me, nobody wants that! (Except, maybe, Russia and Iran.) The rest of the core BRICS nations still have a lot of dollars in their reserves, so, for now, they have more to lose than to gain from totally tanking the dollar. At least in the short term.
What we’ve learned here, on the ground in Rio de Janeiro, is this: Without dramatic changes, the dollar’s days are numbered. And that, in the long run, may be the most important message.
The rest of the world is preparing a Plan B. The question for you and I is simple: What’s ours?
