Intuit….
Models are flashing a 90% chance of corporate bloodbath in October. Bring rain gear.More to come.
— Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) September 10, 2025
J.P. Morgan Warns S&P 500 Could Drop Nearly 8%
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) September 10, 2025
The overnight repo market is supposed to be the smoothest corner of the plumbing: banks, dealers, and money funds trade Treasuries for cash, and the Fed only steps in when that rhythm breaks. But over the past month, the pattern of jagged spikes suggests participants are hitting air pockets where collateral and cash aren’t lining up.
Money market funds are sitting on over $7 trillion, parked mostly in government securities and repos. Normally, that wall of cash absorbs everything. But when you see SOFR stickiness, commercial paper spreads flipping negative, and Treasury bill yields collapsing to the low 4s, it signals that safe collateral is being hoarded rather than freely lent. In practice, that means banks may be sitting on reserves at the Fed instead of recycling them, forcing the Fed to step in to bridge the gaps.
The scale matters too. Compared to 2019’s blowout, today’s injections are smaller, but the structure is different. Back then, the stress was obvious in a single overnight explosion. Now, it’s showing up as repeated jolts, like someone trying to restart an engine that keeps stalling. The normalized Standing Repo Facility should have smoothed this out, but the fact that we’re seeing spikes at all implies stress that’s not supposed to be there if everything were functioning normally.
In my opinion I think we’re looking at a quiet collateral shortage colliding with rollover risk in the corporate and commercial paper space. Dealers are rationing balance sheet capacity, money funds are retreating into bills, and foreign institutions are leaning harder on dollar swaps. The Fed’s repo taps surgical moves to keep the pipes from freezing when stress builds under the surface.
The overnight repo market is supposed to be the smoothest corner of the plumbing: banks, dealers, and money funds trade Treasuries for cash, and the Fed only steps in when that rhythm breaks. But over the past month, the pattern of jagged spikes suggests participants are hitting… https://t.co/BY8NaTdh9p
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) September 10, 2025
Jamie Dimon just said: Fed will probably reduce rates, but I don’t think that’s gonna be consequence of the economy pic.twitter.com/uymaFD9W7l
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) September 9, 2025
Declining inflation is NOT what happens in RECOVERY (Early Phase)
That is what happens in LATE PHASE
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 10, 2025
BREAKING: August PPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.3%.
Core PPI inflation fell to 2.8%, below expectations of 3.5%.
Month-over-month PPI inflation was NEGATIVE for just the 2nd time since March 2024.
Rate cuts are on their way.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 10, 2025
https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1965765321173639310
The biggest risk is that we are surrounded by idiots in every direction now.
And no, that’s not “priced in”. pic.twitter.com/FTk4oz1anT
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) September 9, 2025
BREAKING: There is a ‘bubble risk’ in the S&P 500, Deutsche Bank has said.
— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) September 10, 2025
The worst of the economy is still very much ahead of us. Private consumption is poor now, but it’s about to get a whole lot worse, and in a higher income demographic than we seen so far: college educated households.
As you know, the U.S. Department of Education (what’s left of…
— Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) September 10, 2025
