Gold outshines bonds for decades yet traditional asset managers cling to the 60/40 model despite inflation debt and geopolitical turmoil

Gold is making new highs, measured, in this case, against the US dollar, which is making headlines.

The chart below, however, is far more interesting. The asset management industry runs on two asset classes only: stocks and bonds. Sure, asset managers talk a lot about other asset classes or invest in ‘other’ asset classes that are not really other asset classes (private equity and debt), but in the end, it’s the 60/40 portfolio that continues to dominate.
This is despite:
– having just witnessed the biggest inflation spike in 40 years
– central banks refusing to lift interest rates until it was too late, but ready to cut them when inflation was still way above target
– benign yield levels from a historical perspective, especially taking into account the recent wave of inflation.
– massive debt accumulation and budget deficits when the economy is doing ‘fine’.
– global money supply being at an all-time high and growing.
– growing political instability over public finances (France, the UK, the US).
– elevated geopolitical tensions as we move to a bipolar world centered around China and the United States.

The chart is just one reflection of the fact that risk-return characteristics for an equity-gold portfolio have been superior to those of an equity-bond portfolio for at least 30 years. And yet, very few traditional asset managers invest in gold. What do they tell their clients on ‘realizing’ an unprecedented underperformance of bonds relative to gold, with an unparalleled impact on the purchasing power or wealth?

How do you ‘yes, but gold has no cashflows’ out of that?



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