No cuts no taxes just debt and now rates bite back.
Long-term yields are surging around the world, with German 30-yr rates at the highest since 2023 and 30-yr yields in Japan surging toward new records. The uncomfortable truth: no politician wants to pay for spending with cuts & taxes, & bond markets are getting nervous. pic.twitter.com/VItOpHKphv
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 14, 2025
If the BOE starts panic cuts is game over for the GBP and the UK economy because long end GILT yields will skyrocket https://t.co/vPSltk8R4i pic.twitter.com/oE4fw40Ft1
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 14, 2025
🍿 🎇 Now It’s Popcorns Time 🎇🍿 https://t.co/ooJe5ysJQV pic.twitter.com/tS6wSIi7cz
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 14, 2025
🇯🇵 With Japan’s 30 year government bond yield now pushing through 3.10%, we’re witnessing something that hasn’t happened in well over a decade: sustained pressure at the long end of the Japanese yield curve, outside of a short-term spike. While it’s true the May 2025 high touched… https://t.co/QtMH32VXfh pic.twitter.com/Vqim5qFDCF
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) July 14, 2025
No, it’s not Bitcoin. It’s the UK sovereign bond yield.
New highs, worse than Greece or France.
The government budget massively increases spending and destroys the economy with more taxes.
No one resigns. Socialism always destroys what it pretends to defend.
via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/xYeTsDPyp9
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) July 14, 2025
⚠️BREAKING:
*JAPAN 30-YEAR BOND YIELD RISES 10.9 BASIS POINTS TO 3.156%, HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD
🇯🇵🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/3quNENTqYv
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) July 14, 2025
Bond markets are sending a message. The UK’s 30-year gilt yield closed at 5.44% on July 11, 2025, the highest level since 1998. That’s above Greece, France, and Italy. Japan’s 30-year yield printed 3.18%, and Germany’s Bunds hit 3.20%. These are not isolated spikes. They’re coordinated reactions to fiscal excess.
The UK’s budget is bloated. Labour’s spending review added billions to defense, infrastructure, and welfare. Tax hikes followed. Public sector borrowing is near 5% of GDP. Debt-to-GDP is climbing. Inflation is stuck at 3.4%. GDP contracted 0.3% in April and 0.1% in May. Manufacturing is shrinking. Construction is flat. The pound is sliding. Bond traders are pricing collapse risk.
Japan’s 40-year bond yield hit 3.61% in May. The 30-year yield is holding near 3.18%. The Bank of Japan ended yield curve control and negative rates last year. Life insurers stopped buying long-term debt. Inflation is holding above 3.3%. The BoJ is tightening. Japanese investors are dumping US Treasuries and repatriating capital. The yen carry trade is unwinding.
Germany lifted its debt brake. Defense spending is up. The 30-year Bund yield jumped 36 basis points in two months. The 10-year yield is at 2.79%, up 43 basis points. The ECB cut rates five times. Investors aren’t buying the growth story. The spread between Italian and German bonds narrowed to 100 basis points. That’s compression. Not confidence.
Sources:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/30-year-bond-yield
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/global-bonds-selloff-investors-turn-away-from-long-dated-debt.html
https://www.ssga.com/ca/en/institutional/insights/mind-on-the-market-30-may-2025
