Bowman wants three rate cuts. Payroll growth just cratered. The Fed held steady. Markets didn’t.
“Payroll employment growth slowed sharply to only 35,000 jobs per month over the three months ending in July. This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/08/09/federal-reserve-rate-bowman/1681754774717/
The Fed’s dual mandate is breaking down. Inflation’s near target. Jobs are slipping. Tariffs are hitting harder than expected. And Powell still calls the labor market “solid.”
Look at what the numbers say:
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Payroll growth crashed to 35,000 jobs per month recently, a sharp drop from earlier in the year.
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July added just 73,000 jobs, way below what economists expected.
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Revisions wiped out 258,000 jobs from May and June.
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Unemployment claims are creeping up, signaling layoffs.
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Wage increases are cooling off.
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Consumer confidence is sliding.
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Tariffs and trade tensions are biting hiring harder than predicted.
“Last week’s surprisingly poor jobs report and massive downward revisions to previous months’ data have spurred renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates… The July jobs report showed the U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July, well below economists’ expectations.” https://newschannel9.com/news/nation-world/sour-jobs-report-adds-pressure-onto-the-federal-reserve-to-cut-rates-in-september-economy-interest-rates-fomc-meeting-unemployment-tariffs-trade-war
Bowman didn’t just make noise. She wanted action in July. Now she’s pushing for three rate cuts. She says the data demands it.
“Taking action at last week’s meeting would have proactively hedged against the risk of a further erosion in labor market conditions and a further weakening in economic activity.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/09/feds-bowman-jobs-report-rate-cuts.html
The revisions wiped out 258,000 jobs. This isn’t small stuff. It’s a policy failure. Trump fired the BLS commissioner. Markets are betting on two cuts, with the first likely in September.
“July payroll growth came in far below forecasts, and May–June figures were revised down significantly, signaling deeper job market weakness. As a result, investors now see an 87% chance of a September cut.” https://www.aol.com/finance/labor-department-data-upset-may-104730685.html
When your data swings this wildly, it’s a flashing red light. That’s the signal.
