CPI jumps to 2.7%. 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5%. Bezos files to sell $1.5B in $AMZN stock. Inflation trend is clear. Fed rate cut odds collapse.

Inflation is back on the move. The June CPI came in at 2.7%, marking the first upside surprise in five months and the highest print since February. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9%. Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.3%, up from 0.1% in May. Gasoline dropped, but everything else climbed. Shelter rose 0.2%. Food up 0.3%. Household furnishings jumped 1%. Apparel gained 0.4%. Medical care services rose 0.6%. The inflation trend is clear. April was 2.3%. May hit 2.5%. Now June is 2.7%. The Fed’s 2% target hasn’t been met in 52 consecutive months.

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield jumps above 5% pic.twitter.com/PR6WYvZfjk

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 15, 2025

The bond market noticed. The 30-year Treasury yield surged past 5.00% for the first time since early June, closing at 5.03%. Traders are pricing in higher long-term inflation risk. The odds of a September rate cut have collapsed to a coin flip. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to rise again when released later this month. Tariffs are starting to pass through. Furniture, clothing, and appliances all saw price increases. The CPI report showed clear signs of tariff impact.

Jeff Bezos filed to sell 6,715,420 shares of Amazon stock worth $1.50 billion. That’s not routine. That’s a signal. Bezos has now sold nearly 9.7 million shares in 2025 alone, part of a plan to unload up to 25 million shares by May 2026. Amazon stock closed at $226.35, up 0.29% on the day, but slipped to $225.85 after hours. The company reports Q2 earnings on July 31. AWS grew 17% in Q1. Ad revenue rose 19%. But consumer spending is softening, and tariffs are hitting third-party sellers. Bezos knows what’s coming.

BREAKING: Jeff Bezos of Amazon, $AMZN, has filed to sell 6,715,420 shares $AMZN, for $1.50 billion. pic.twitter.com/KMVCc7x3Xd

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 15, 2025

Why does the average consumer feel worse off?

Because 41% of consumer spending goes to: housing, utilities, healthcare, medications, and insurance.

This was 16% in 1947, 30% in 1980, and 35% in 1990.

Fewer consumer dollars are left for true discretionary spending. pic.twitter.com/Jb0sskrtl3

— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 15, 2025

Monetary policy should remain tight until the 11% additional inflation we’ve had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There’s no point in having an inflation target if you’re not going to adhere to it. The Fed should not cut rates at all this year. pic.twitter.com/WyfgAXQ8A7

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 15, 2025

If it wasn’t for the big drop in gasoline in June this morning’s CPI would have been a disaster. 💀 pic.twitter.com/jC0k61dcZn

— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 15, 2025

The average American feels squeezed. Housing, utilities, healthcare, medications, and insurance now consume 41% of consumer spending. That figure was 16% in 1947, 30% in 1980, and 35% in 1990. Discretionary spending is shrinking. Real wages fell 0.1% in June. Real weekly earnings dropped 0.4%. The CPI report showed a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings, but inflation wiped it out.

The Fed is boxed in. Cutting rates now would be financial suicide. Inflation is rising. Tariffs are biting. The speculative bubble is still inflating. Monetary policy should stay tight until the 11% excess inflation since January 2020 is erased. The Fed’s credibility is on the line. There’s no point in having a 2% target if it’s ignored.